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27 March 2013
The previous Forecast in 2012 showed the high demand of the country in the presence of its own vision of the development of world energy. In the past year the materials of the Forecast were actively used in the reports of the representatives of the federal organs of authority, leaders of the largest Russian companies and the materials were discussed at the scientific-expert events in Russia and abroad. Improvement of the applied instruments and expansion of the range of the studied parameters allows the Forecast 2013 even more interesting.
Forecast has the aims to evaluate the “natural” trends of the world markets of hydrocarbons, trend changes in anticipated technological breakthroughs and implications for energy and the economy of Russia. There are developed for this purpose:
1. baseline scenario of development of the world energy and hydrocarbon market with optimization in it the role of the applied energy technology,
2. version in case of success of the urgent fundamental technological breakthroughs in the production of hydrocarbons, and in sphere of consumption,
3. forecasts in sphere of Energy of the Russian Federation under considered transformations of the world hydrocarbon market.
The Base Forecast of the evolution of hydrocarbon market is made on the world energy model-and-information complex “Scaner” with updated models of the oil market and gas markets. About the 70 areas of consumption of petroleum products and gas has been described the advanced technology of the competition the natural gas to liquid fuels in transport and chemistry, as well as with coal, nuclear energy and renewable energy sources in the electric power industry. About the 700 fields and areas of oil production and 800 gas are considered the advanced technologies of production and processing of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources. On the main energy markets are calculated balance of the price of fuel, the analysis of their sensitivity to changes of important resource and technological factors and are evaluated the role of major groups of players of the market and especially Russian.
For the evaluation of the versions of the success of the technological breakthroughs in the model included the variants of changes in time of sizes of production, consumption and replacement of all energy resources in the implementation of new technologies for the production of unconventional oil and gas resources, production of synthetic liquid fuels and biofuels, as well as effective energy storage in transport. According to the results of calculations has been defined the changes of a conjuncture of markets and the available technical and economic characteristics of the new technologies.
Forecasts of development of power of Russia are made for the probable and three extreme for the country conditions on the world markets of hydrocarbons with calculation of their impact on the domestic demand, the production and export of energy resources and the consequences for the economy.
These scenarios represent a variety of development - the “forks”, facing of which the global energy sector and Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia. One of the main purposes of the presentation of the new forecast is to stimulate discussion regarding the ways of further development of power industry of Russia.
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